Summer production capacity control has been implemented. By the middle of 2026, the market price of methyl silicone oil is expected to remain stable. 

1.Upstream and downstream coordinated emission reduction, orderly reduction of industry production capacity
Entering the summer of 2026, chemical industrial parks across the country carried out special control measures for summer high-temperature safety production and low-carbon emission reduction. The production lines of basic organic silicon raw materials implemented staggered production, and the overall industry production capacity of methyl silicone oil saw a slight decline compared with the previous month. This control focused on small and medium-sized, extensive production lines, with a particular emphasis on controlling unorganized emissions of waste gas and direct discharge of wastewater. The capacity of low-end, general-purpose methyl silicone oil was passively contracted, the industry gradually bid farewell to the chaotic situation of low-price internal competition, and the production capacity structure was further optimized. Compliant and large-scale production capacity occupied the dominant position in the market. 

2. Fluctuations in raw material costs, and the market price of silicone oil has entered a stable range
Affected by the two-way competition between supply and demand of organic silicon monomers, the raw material costs of methyl silicone oil have shown a narrowing range of fluctuations recently. The market quotations of industrial conventional viscosity methyl silicone oil have stabilized, ending the slight fluctuation and upward trend in the first half of the year. High-end refined silicone oil relies on purification technology for premium pricing, and its price remains firm, with the price gap continuously widening. Industry analysis suggests that the reduction in upstream raw material production will support the market in the second half of the year, and coupled with the relatively slow replenishment pace of the downstream market, methyl silicone oil is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations in the short term. Overall, it will maintain a stable price operation pattern. 

3. Downstream conducts demand-based stocking and reduces purchasing intensity during off-season
Each year, the middle of the year marks a traditional off-season for textile auxiliaries, industrial defoamers, and rubber demolding products. End-user enterprises mainly rely on consuming their existing inventories. Large-scale purchasing activities decrease, and the market circulation transaction volume declines month-on-month. Currently, downstream purchasing tends to adopt a small-batch and frequent purchase model. They prioritize the purchase of low-volatile compliant product types. The circulation volume of inferior, low-cost ordinary silicone oil continues to shrink, and market purchasing increasingly values the environmental compliance qualifications of products. 

4. Industry Forecast: Demand Recovery in the Third Quarter Leads to Market Growth
Based on the industry's historical patterns, in the third quarter, the processing of winter and autumn textiles, the maintenance of industrial equipment, and the resumption of production and stockpiling in daily chemical factories will all be initiated simultaneously. The demand for methyl silicone oil will rapidly increase. Additionally, after the summer control measures are lifted, new high-end production capacity will gradually be released, which can balance the market supply and demand gap. The industry points out that the core of future development remains the elimination of non-standard and low-end products, relying on compliant quality to stabilize market prices, and promoting the healthy and market-oriented development of the industry.